Browns vs Texans – Week 16 2023
CLE
HOU
CLE
AWAY
36@22
CLE BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 16
2023 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 36, Houston Texans 22.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Browns, 3 Texans.
Model confidence: CLE 50%Our line: CLE +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE +0.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.045Net EPA / play+0.014
-0.141 (28)Offense EPA / play-0.028 (15)
-0.186 (1)Defense EPA / play-0.043 (13)
38.9% (29)Offense success %40.9% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 14. Off by 14.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
No noteworthy trends
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CLE
Amari Cooper
WR
227.0 SEASON PPR
Jerome Ford
RB
211.2 SEASON PPR
David Njoku
TE
201.2 SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@HOUW13 2022 | CLE 27, HOU 14 | CLE | W |
| HOU@CLEW2 2021 | HOU 21, CLE 31 | CLE | W |
| HOU@CLEW10 2020 | HOU 7, CLE 10 | CLE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs HOU
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project HOU by 0.0. The market has CLE at -3.0.
Cleveland Browns won, CLE 36, HOU 22. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -3.0, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 16, the Cleveland Browns were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.3, 3.3 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 27, HOU 14 in Week 13 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE +0.045 against HOU +0.014.
