Browns vs Texans – Week 13 2022
CLE
HOU
CLE
AWAY
27@14
CLE BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 13
2022 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 27, Houston Texans 14.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Browns, 2 Texans.
Model confidence: CLE 70%Our line: CLE -6.9
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -6.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.001Net EPA / play-0.192
+0.012 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.189 (32)
+0.014 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.003 (17)
44.0% (19)Offense success %36.9% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 6.9. Actual: 13. Off by 6.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@HOUW16 2023 | CLE 36, HOU 22 | CLE | W |
| HOU@CLEW2 2021 | HOU 21, CLE 31 | CLE | W |
| HOU@CLEW10 2020 | HOU 7, CLE 10 | CLE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs HOU
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 6.9. The market has CLE at -7.5.
Cleveland Browns won, CLE 27, HOU 14. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -7.5, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 13, the Cleveland Browns were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 0.3 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 36, HOU 22 in Week 16 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE -0.001 against HOU -0.192.
