CLE @ HOU – Week 13 2022
CLE
HOU
CLE
AWAY
27@14
CLE BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 13
2022 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
Model confidence: CLE 70%Our line: CLE -6.9
CLE
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.9
OUR LINE
-229
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.001Net EPA / play-0.192
+0.012Offense EPA / play-0.189
+0.014Defense EPA / play+0.003
44.0%Offense success %36.9%
43.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 6.9. Actual: 13. Off by 6.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CLE | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -329 | +280 |
| Our fair price | -229 | +229 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CLE -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.34
OUR NUMBER
70%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
74%
DIFFERENCE
-5%
Both figures are for CLE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CLE
Nick Chubb
RB
281.4 SEASON PPR
Amari Cooper
WR
246.0 SEASON PPR
Jacoby Brissett
QB
168.6 SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
Jacoby Brissett2608 yd · 12 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
Nick Chubb1525 yd · 12 TD
Kareem Hunt468 yd · 3 TD
Jacoby Brissett243 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Amari Cooper78 rec · 1160 yd · 9 TD
Donovan Peoples-Jones61 rec · 839 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@HOUW16 2023 | CLE 36, HOU 22 | CLE | W |
| HOU@CLEW2 2021 | HOU 21, CLE 31 | CLE | W |
| HOU@CLEW10 2020 | HOU 7, CLE 10 | CLE | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs HOU
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 6.9. The market has CLE at -7.5.
The model projects 46.7 combined points. The market total is 47.0.
Week 13 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 36, HOU 22 in Week 16 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE -0.001 against HOU -0.192.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
