Texans vs Browns – Week 10 2020
HOU
CLE
HOU
AWAY
7@10
CLE BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 10
2020 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 7, Cleveland Browns 10.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Texans.
Model confidence: CLE 58%Our line: CLE -2.8
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -2.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.071Net EPA / play+0.011
+0.099 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.088 (10)
+0.170 (31)Defense EPA / play+0.077 (23)
47.6% (7)Offense success %46.6% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CLE by 2.8. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
HIGH WIND
25 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
CLE
Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
25 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
HOU
Deshaun Watson
QB
369.3 SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
232.0 SEASON PPR
Will Fuller
WR
188.9 SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Deshaun Watson4823 yd · 33 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
David Johnson691 yd · 6 TD
Deshaun Watson444 yd · 3 TD
Duke Johnson235 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks81 rec · 1150 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@HOUW16 2023 | CLE 36, HOU 22 | CLE | W |
| CLE@HOUW13 2022 | CLE 27, HOU 14 | CLE | W |
| HOU@CLEW2 2021 | HOU 21, CLE 31 | CLE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs CLE
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CLE by 2.8. The market has CLE at -4.5.
Cleveland Browns won, HOU 7, CLE 10. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -4.5, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 10, the Houston Texans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.7, 1.7 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 36, HOU 22 in Week 16 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Cleveland Browns: HOU -0.071 against CLE +0.011.
