Jaguars vs Packers – Week 10 2020
JAX
GB
JAX
AWAY
20@24
GB BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 10
2020 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 20, Green Bay Packers 24.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Jaguars, 2 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 74%Our line: GB -8.8
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -13.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -8.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.204Net EPA / play+0.196
-0.059 (28)Offense EPA / play+0.219 (1)
+0.145 (30)Defense EPA / play+0.022 (14)
41.5% (28)Offense success %50.7% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 8.8. Actual: 4. Off by 4.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
HIGH WIND
23 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
23 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
JAX
James Robinson
RB
250.4 SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
160.7 SEASON PPR
Laviska Shenault Jr.
WR
157.1 SEASON PPR
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
Gardner Minshew2259 yd · 16 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
James Robinson1070 yd · 7 TD
Gardner Minshew153 yd · 1 TD
Dare Ogunbowale145 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
DJ Chark53 rec · 706 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 74% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project GB by 8.8. The market has GB at -13.5.
Green Bay Packers won, JAX 20, GB 24. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -13.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 13.5 points.
In Week 10, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 1.1 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 30, JAX 27 in Week 8 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Green Bay Packers: JAX -0.204 against GB +0.196.
