Saints vs Buccaneers – Week 13 2022
NO
TB
NO
AWAY
16@17
TB BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 13
2022 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 16, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Saints, 4 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 67%Our line: TB -5.8
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -5.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.018Net EPA / play-0.013
-0.038 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.038 (21)
-0.056 (6)Defense EPA / play-0.025 (12)
45.7% (8)Offense success %43.8% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 5.8. Actual: 1. Off by 4.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Andy Dalton2871 yd · 18 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@TBW14 2025 | NO 24, TB 20 | TB | L |
| TB@NOW8 2025 | TB 23, NO 3 | TB | W |
| NO@TBW18 2024 | NO 19, TB 27 | TB | W |
| TB@NOW6 2024 | TB 51, NO 27 | NO | L |
| NO@TBW17 2023 | NO 23, TB 13 | TB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 5.8. The market has TB at -3.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, NO 16, TB 17. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -3.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 13, the New Orleans Saints were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 4.7 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2022 season, MON 8:15 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NO 24, TB 20 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.018 against TB -0.013.
