2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NO @ TB – Week 13 2022
NO
TB
NO
AWAY
16@17
TB +1
FINAL · WEEK 13
2022 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 67%Projected margin: 3.8
TB
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
3.8
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 3.8. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 2.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -190 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
2 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
211.7SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
198.2SEASON PPR
Andy Dalton
QB
174.2SEASON PPR
TB
Tom Brady
QB
271.7SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
226.1SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@TBW14 2025 | NO 24, TB 20 | TB | L |
| TB@NOW8 2025 | TB 23, NO 3 | TB | W |
| NO@TBW18 2024 | NO 19, TB 27 | TB | W |
| TB@NOW6 2024 | TB 51, NO 27 | NO | L |
| NO@TBW17 2023 | NO 23, TB 13 | TB | L |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES