NE @ DEN – Week 16 2023
NE
DEN
NE
AWAY
26@23
NE BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 16
2023 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 69%Our line: DEN -6.8
DEN
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.8
OUR LINE
-226
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.136Net EPA / play-0.077
-0.191Offense EPA / play-0.058
-0.055Defense EPA / play+0.019
38.9%Offense success %42.1%
41.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but NE won. Projected margin was 6.8, the model overestimated by 9.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
COLD GAME
28°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NE | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +270 | -340 |
| Our fair price | +226 | -226 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DEN -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
69%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
74%
DIFFERENCE
-5%
Both figures are for DEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
28°F
WIND
9 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NE
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
174.5 SEASON PPR
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
145.7 SEASON PPR
Hunter Henry
TE
119.9 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
Mac Jones2120 yd · 10 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Ezekiel Elliott642 yd · 3 TD
Rhamondre Stevenson619 yd · 4 TD
Mac Jones96 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
DeMario Douglas49 rec · 561 yd · 0 TD
Hunter Henry42 rec · 419 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 6.8. The market has DEN at -7.0.
The model projects 45.8 combined points. The market total is 37.5.
Week 16 of the 2023 season, SUN 8:15 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 18, NE 12 in Week 6 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Denver Broncos: NE -0.136 against DEN -0.077.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
