NE @ DEN – Week 16 2023

DEN B-tier pick misses. NE takes it.

Model picked DEN but NE won. Projected margin was 4.2 -- the model overestimated by 7.2 points.

The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.

Missed the spread by 10.0 points.

28°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.

Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.