Commanders vs Jets – Week 16 2023
WAS
NYJ
WAS
AWAY
28@30
NYJ BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 16
2023 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 28, New York Jets 30.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Commanders, 2 Jets.
Model confidence: WAS 58%Our line: WAS -2.7
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -2.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.190Net EPA / play-0.133
-0.106 (27)Offense EPA / play-0.252 (32)
+0.085 (31)Defense EPA / play-0.119 (3)
41.0% (21)Offense success %35.0% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS C-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked WAS but NYJ won. Projected margin was 2.7, the model overestimated by 4.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 0-4 ATS (0%)
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Sam Howell3946 yd · 21 TD · 21 INT
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin79 rec · 1002 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs NYJ
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project WAS by 2.7. The market has WAS at +3.0.
New York Jets won, WAS 28, NYJ 30. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Washington Commanders at +3.0, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 16, the Washington Commanders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 36.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 9.2 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New York Jets: WAS -0.190 against NYJ -0.133.
