WAS @ NYJ · Week 16 2023

Q: Who is favored in Washington Commanders at New York Jets?

Our model takes Washington Commanders at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project WAS by 2.7. The market has WAS at +3.0.

Q: What is the projected total for Washington Commanders vs New York Jets?

The model projects 45.7 combined points. The market total is 36.5.

Q: When do the Washington Commanders and New York Jets play?

Week 16 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.

Q: Which team has been better, the Washington Commanders or the New York Jets?

By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New York Jets: WAS -0.190 against NYJ -0.133.

WAS

NYJ

WAS

AWAY

28@30

NYJ BY 2

FINAL · WEEK 16

2023 SEASON

MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ

NYJ

HOME

PICK: WAS

TIER C

PICK LOSTATS ✓

WAS 58%

NYJ 42%

Model confidence: WAS 58%

Our line: WAS -2.7

WAS

PICK SIDE

+3.0

MARKET SPREAD

-2.7

OUR LINE

-138

OUR ML

—

LIVE ML

COVERED

VS SPREAD

TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16

WAS	METRIC	NYJ
-0.190	NET EPA/PLAY	-0.133
-0.106	OFF EPA/PLAY	-0.252
+0.085	DEF EPA/PLAY	-0.119
329	POINTS FOR	268
518	POINTS AGAINST	355
66.3%	PASS RATE	63.3%

EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE

-0.190Net EPA / play-0.133

-0.106Offense EPA / play-0.252

+0.085Defense EPA / play-0.119

41.0%Offense success %35.0%

45.4%Defense success %

GAME NARRATIVE

WAS C-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.

MISSED

Model picked WAS but NYJ won. Projected margin was 2.7, the model overestimated by 4.7 points.

INSTANT CLASSIC

The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.

COVERED

This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.

Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.

BETTING LINE

SOURCE	WAS	NYJ
Closing line	+140	-166
Our fair price	-138	+138

Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.

SPREAD WAS +3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00

OUR NUMBER

58%

MARKET, VIG REMOVED

40%

DIFFERENCE

+18%

Both figures are for WAS. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.

GAME TOTAL

PREDICTED TOTAL

45.7

VEGAS LINE

36.5

ALL GAME TOTALS →

SITUATIONAL TRENDS

Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.

WAS

Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 0-4 ATS (0%)

NYJ

Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)

GAME WEATHER

VENUE

OUTDOOR

TEMP

45°F

WIND

2 MPH

IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY

TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON

WAS

Sam Howell

QB

257.5 SEASON PPR

Terry McLaurin

WR

203.2 SEASON PPR

Brian Robinson

RB

198.1 SEASON PPR

NYJ

DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT

Washington Commanders

PASSING

Sam Howell3946 yd · 21 TD · 21 INT

RUSHING

Brian Robinson733 yd · 5 TD

Antonio Gibson265 yd · 1 TD

Sam Howell263 yd · 5 TD

RECEIVING

Terry McLaurin79 rec · 1002 yd · 4 TD

Curtis Samuel62 rec · 613 yd · 4 TD

INJURY REPORTWEEK 16

WAS4 LISTED

Tyler Larsen

C · Knee

OUT

Charles Leno

T · Calf

OUT

Brian Robinson

RB · Hamstring

OUT

COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs NYJ

QUESTIONS

Who is favored in Washington Commanders at New York Jets?

What is the projected total for Washington Commanders vs New York Jets?

When do the Washington Commanders and New York Jets play?

Which team has been better, the Washington Commanders or the New York Jets?

WHAT PRO ADDS

Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.

See the Edge