2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ KC – Week 7 2025
LV
KC
LV
AWAY
0@31
KC +31
FINAL · WEEK 7
2025 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: KC 76%Projected margin: 7.6
KC
PICK SIDE
-13.5
SPREAD
7.6
PROJ MARGIN
-698
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 7.6. Actual: 31. Off by 23.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 17.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -13.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -698 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.14 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
No noteworthy trends
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LV
A.Jeanty
RB
245.1SEASON PPR
B.Bowers
TE
176.2SEASON PPR
G.Smith
QB
173.9SEASON PPR
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
285.7SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
193.2SEASON PPR
R.Rice
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@LVW18 2025 | KC 12, LV 14 | KC | L |
| LV@KCW13 2024 | LV 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LVW8 2024 | KC 27, LV 20 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW16 2023 | LV 20, KC 14 | KC | L |
| KC@LVW12 2023 | KC 31, LV 17 | KC | W |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES