Raiders vs Chiefs – Week 7 2025
LV
KC
LV
AWAY
0@31
KC BY 31
FINAL · WEEK 7
2025 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 0, Kansas City Chiefs 31.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Raiders, 1 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 76%Our line: KC -9.4
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -13.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -9.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.240Net EPA / play+0.055
-0.215 (32)Offense EPA / play+0.035 (11)
+0.024 (21)Defense EPA / play-0.020 (12)
37.6% (30)Offense success %44.5% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 9.4. Actual: 31. Off by 21.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 17.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
No noteworthy trends
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@LVW4 2026 | KC 30, LV 27 | KC | W |
| KC@LVW18 2025 | KC 12, LV 14 | KC | L |
| LV@KCW13 2024 | LV 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LVW8 2024 | KC 27, LV 20 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW16 2023 | LV 20, KC 14 | KC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 76% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project KC by 9.4. The market has KC at -13.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, LV 0, KC 31. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -13.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 13.5 points.
In Week 7, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 1.5 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, KC 30, LV 27 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Kansas City Chiefs: LV -0.240 against KC +0.055.
