Colts vs Chargers – Week 7 2025
IND
LAC
IND
AWAY
38@24
IND BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 7
2025 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 38, Los Angeles Chargers 24.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Colts, 3 Chargers.
Model confidence: IND 61%Our line: IND -3.7
ODDS
SPREAD
IND +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -3.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.068Net EPA / play+0.059
+0.072 (9)Offense EPA / play-0.024 (25)
+0.004 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.083 (7)
46.3% (8)Offense success %43.1% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 3.7. Actual: 14. Off by 10.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
No noteworthy trends
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@INDW16 2022 | LAC 20, IND 3 | LAC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs LAC
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 3.7. The market has IND at +2.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, IND 38, LAC 24. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at +2.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 7, the Indianapolis Colts were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 3.5 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 20, IND 3 in Week 16 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND +0.068 against LAC +0.059.
