CAR @ NYJ – Week 7 2025
CAR
NYJ
CAR
AWAY
13@6
CAR BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 7
2025 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
Model confidence: CAR 71%Our line: CAR -7.5
CAR
PICK SIDE
+1.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.5
OUR LINE
-247
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.107Net EPA / play-0.274
-0.039Offense EPA / play-0.127
+0.067Defense EPA / play+0.147
43.1%Offense success %40.7%
44.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CAR by 7.5. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 0.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CAR | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -108 | -112 |
| Our fair price | -247 | +247 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CAR +1.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.24
OUR NUMBER
71%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
50%
DIFFERENCE
+22%
Both figures are for CAR. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
71°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CAR
B.Young
QB
218.0 SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
216.3 SEASON PPR
T.McMillan
WR
213.4 SEASON PPR
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
B.Young3011 yd · 23 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
R.Dowdle1076 yd · 6 TD
C.Hubbard511 yd · 1 TD
B.Young216 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
T.McMillan70 rec · 1014 yd · 7 TD
J.Coker33 rec · 394 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@CARW1 2021 | NYJ 14, CAR 19 | CAR | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs NYJ
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Carolina Panthers at 71% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project CAR by 7.5. The market has CAR at +1.5.
The model projects 43.2 combined points. The market total is 39.5.
Week 7 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Carolina Panthers, NYJ 14, CAR 19 in Week 1 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Carolina Panthers: CAR -0.107 against NYJ -0.274.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
