Panthers vs Jets – Week 7 2025
CAR
NYJ
CAR
AWAY
13@6
CAR BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 7
2025 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 13, New York Jets 6.
Going in, our model had favored Carolina Panthers at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Panthers, 4 Jets.
Model confidence: CAR 71%Our line: CAR -7.5
ODDS
SPREAD
CAR +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CAR -7.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CAR · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.107Net EPA / play-0.274
-0.039 (26)Offense EPA / play-0.127 (29)
+0.067 (23)Defense EPA / play+0.147 (31)
43.1% (21)Offense success %40.7% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CAR by 7.5. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 0.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
71°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@CARW1 2021 | NYJ 14, CAR 19 | CAR | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs NYJ
Our model takes Carolina Panthers at 71% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project CAR by 7.5. The market has CAR at +1.5.
Carolina Panthers won, CAR 13, NYJ 6. Our model had favored Carolina Panthers at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Carolina Panthers at +1.5, meaning the book expects Carolina Panthers to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 7, the Carolina Panthers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.2, 3.7 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Carolina Panthers, NYJ 14, CAR 19 in Week 1 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Carolina Panthers: CAR -0.107 against NYJ -0.274.
