Falcons vs 49ers – Week 7 2025
ATL
SF
ATL
AWAY
10@20
SF BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 7
2025 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 10, San Francisco 49ers 20.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Falcons, 4 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 59%Our line: SF -3.2
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -3.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.018Net EPA / play+0.018
-0.021 (24)Offense EPA / play+0.088 (6)
-0.004 (15)Defense EPA / play+0.070 (24)
43.7% (18)Offense success %48.3% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 3.2. Actual: 10. Off by 6.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
SF
Road Favorite 6-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
74°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@ATLW6 2022 | SF 14, ATL 28 | SF | L |
| ATL@SFW15 2021 | ATL 13, SF 31 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project SF by 3.2. The market has SF at -1.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, ATL 10, SF 20. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -1.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 7, the Atlanta Falcons were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 1.5 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2025 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, SF 14, ATL 28 in Week 6 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, San Francisco 49ers: ATL -0.018 against SF +0.018.
