2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SF @ ATL – Week 6 2022
SF
ATL
SF
AWAY
14@28
ATL +14
FINAL · WEEK 6
2022 SEASON
ATL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: SF
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: SF 69%Projected margin: -5.5
SF
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-5.5
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but ATL won. Projected margin was 5.5 -- the model overestimated by 19.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 17.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -185 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SF
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)
ATL
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
SF
Christian McCaffrey
RB
238.4SEASON PPR
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
227.8SEASON PPR
George Kittle
TE
200.5SEASON PPR
ATL
Marcus Mariota
QB
196.6SEASON PPR
Drake London
WR
178.6SEASON PPR
Tyler Allgeier
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@SFW7 2025 | ATL 10, SF 20 | SF | W |
| ATL@SFW15 2021 | ATL 13, SF 31 | SF | W |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES