49ers vs Falcons – Week 6 2022
SF
ATL
SF
AWAY
14@28
ATL BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 6
2022 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 14, Atlanta Falcons 28.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 49ers, 1 Falcons.
Model confidence: SF 69%Our line: SF -6.6
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -6.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.211Net EPA / play-0.075
+0.085 (4)Offense EPA / play+0.005 (14)
-0.126 (1)Defense EPA / play+0.080 (31)
46.2% (6)Offense success %45.5% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but ATL won. Projected margin was 6.6, the model overestimated by 20.6 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 17.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)
ATL
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
SF
238.4 SEASON PPR
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
227.8 SEASON PPR
200.5 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
Jimmy Garoppolo2437 yd · 16 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
Brandon Aiyuk78 rec · 1015 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@SFW7 2025 | ATL 10, SF 20 | SF | W |
| ATL@SFW15 2021 | ATL 13, SF 31 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs ATL
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 6.6. The market has SF at -3.5.
Atlanta Falcons won, SF 14, ATL 28. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -3.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 6, the San Francisco 49ers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 0.4 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, ATL 10, SF 20 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.211 against ATL -0.075.
