NYJ @ GB – Week 6 2022
NYJ
GB
NYJ
AWAY
27@10
NYJ BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 6
2022 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
Model confidence: GB 71%Our line: GB -7.5
GB
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.5
OUR LINE
-245
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.036Net EPA / play-0.034
-0.087Offense EPA / play+0.003
-0.051Defense EPA / play+0.037
39.0%Offense success %45.8%
41.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but NYJ won. Projected margin was 7.5, the model overestimated by 24.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 24.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYJ | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +305 | -362 |
| Our fair price | +245 | -245 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD GB -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
71%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
76%
DIFFERENCE
-5%
Both figures are for GB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NYJ
Garrett Wilson
WR
215.7 SEASON PPR
Tyler Conklin
TE
131.5 SEASON PPR
Michael Carter
RB
126.0 SEASON PPR
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson1688 yd · 6 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Breece Hall463 yd · 4 TD
Michael Carter402 yd · 3 TD
Bam Knight300 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Garrett Wilson83 rec · 1103 yd · 4 TD
Tyler Conklin58 rec · 552 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs GB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 7.5. The market has GB at -7.5.
The model projects 46.7 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 6 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Green Bay Packers: NYJ -0.036 against GB -0.034.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
