Jets vs Packers – Week 6 2022
NYJ
GB
NYJ
AWAY
27@10
NYJ BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 6
2022 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 27, Green Bay Packers 10.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Jets, 2 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 71%Our line: GB -7.5
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -7.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.036Net EPA / play-0.034
-0.087 (27)Offense EPA / play+0.003 (16)
-0.051 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.037 (27)
39.0% (30)Offense success %45.8% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but NYJ won. Projected margin was 7.5, the model overestimated by 24.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 24.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson1688 yd · 6 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 7.5. The market has GB at -7.5.
New York Jets won, NYJ 27, GB 10. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -7.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 6, the New York Jets were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 2.2 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 20, NYJ 17 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Green Bay Packers: NYJ -0.036 against GB -0.034.
