NE @ CLE – Week 6 2022
NE
CLE
NE
AWAY
38@15
NE BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 6
2022 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
Model confidence: NE 61%Our line: NE -3.9
NE
PICK SIDE
+2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.9
OUR LINE
-159
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.035Net EPA / play-0.001
-0.054Offense EPA / play+0.012
-0.089Defense EPA / play+0.014
40.9%Offense success %44.0%
41.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 3.9. Actual: 23. Off by 19.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 25.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NE | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +127 | -140 |
| Our fair price | -159 | +159 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NE +2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.43
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
43%
DIFFERENCE
+18%
Both figures are for NE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CLE
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NE
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
249.1 SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
182.3 SEASON PPR
Mac Jones
QB
170.1 SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
Mac Jones2997 yd · 14 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Rhamondre Stevenson1040 yd · 5 TD
Damien Harris462 yd · 3 TD
Mac Jones102 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Jakobi Meyers67 rec · 804 yd · 6 TD
DeVante Parker31 rec · 539 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@NEW8 2025 | CLE 13, NE 32 | NE | W |
| CLE@NEW10 2021 | CLE 7, NE 45 | NE | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs CLE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New England Patriots at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 3.9. The market has NE at +2.5.
The model projects 46.7 combined points. The market total is 43.0.
Week 6 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, CLE 13, NE 32 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.035 against CLE -0.001.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
