Patriots vs Browns – Week 6 2022
NE
CLE
NE
AWAY
38@15
NE BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 6
2022 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 38, Cleveland Browns 15.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Patriots, 3 Browns.
Model confidence: NE 61%Our line: NE -3.9
ODDS
SPREAD
NE +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -3.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.035Net EPA / play-0.001
-0.054 (24)Offense EPA / play+0.012 (10)
-0.089 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.014 (22)
40.9% (24)Offense success %44.0% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 3.9. Actual: 23. Off by 19.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 25.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CLE
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@NEW8 2025 | CLE 13, NE 32 | NE | W |
| CLE@NEW10 2021 | CLE 7, NE 45 | NE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs CLE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 3.9. The market has NE at +2.5.
New England Patriots won, NE 38, CLE 15. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at +2.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 6, the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 3.7 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, CLE 13, NE 32 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.035 against CLE -0.001.
