2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ARI @ SEA – Week 6 2022
ARI
SEA
ARI
AWAY
9@19
SEA +10
FINAL · WEEK 6
2022 SEASON
SEA
HOME
TIER C
PICK: ARI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: ARI 56%Projected margin: 0.2
ARI
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
0.2
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI C-tier pick misses. SEA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but SEA won. Projected margin was 0.2 -- the model overestimated by 9.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | ARI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -136 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
SEA
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
200.5SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
200.2SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
156.0SEASON PPR
SEA
Geno Smith
QB
303.9SEASON PPR
Tyler Lockett
WR
239.3SEASON PPR
DK Metcalf
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@SEAW10 2025 | ARI 22, SEA 44 | SEA | W |
| SEA@ARIW4 2025 | SEA 23, ARI 20 | SEA | W |
| SEA@ARIW14 2024 | SEA 30, ARI 18 | ARI | L |
| ARI@SEAW12 2024 | ARI 6, SEA 16 | ARI | L |
| SEA@ARIW18 2023 | SEA 21, ARI 20 | ARI | L |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES