Jaguars vs Colts – Week 6 2022
JAX
IND
JAX
AWAY
27@34
IND BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 6
2022 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 27, Indianapolis Colts 34.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Colts.
Model confidence: IND 62%Our line: IND -4.0
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -4.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.067Net EPA / play-0.141
+0.046 (8)Offense EPA / play-0.168 (31)
-0.021 (13)Defense EPA / play-0.027 (11)
46.3% (5)Offense success %39.8% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 4.0. Actual: 7. Off by 3.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
No noteworthy trends
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
JAX
295.6 SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
241.9 SEASON PPR
205.1 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@INDW17 2025 | JAX 23, IND 17 | JAX | W |
| IND@JAXW14 2025 | IND 19, JAX 36 | JAX | W |
| JAX@INDW18 2024 | JAX 23, IND 26 | IND | W |
| IND@JAXW5 2024 | IND 34, JAX 37 | IND | L |
| IND@JAXW6 2023 | IND 20, JAX 37 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project IND by 4.0. The market has IND at -1.0.
Indianapolis Colts won, JAX 27, IND 34. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -1.0, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 6, the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 5.4 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 23, IND 17 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.067 against IND -0.141.
