Bengals vs Saints – Week 6 2022
CIN
NO
CIN
AWAY
30@26
CIN BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 6
2022 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 30, New Orleans Saints 26.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Saints.
Model confidence: CIN 50%Our line: CIN +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN +0.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.125Net EPA / play+0.018
+0.077 (5)Offense EPA / play-0.038 (21)
-0.048 (10)Defense EPA / play-0.056 (6)
47.3% (4)Offense success %45.7% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 4. Off by 4.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs NO
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NO by 0.0. The market has CIN at -3.0.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CIN 30, NO 26. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -3.0, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 6, the New Orleans Saints were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.6, 6.1 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.125 against NO +0.018.
