CIN @ NO – Week 6 2022
CIN
NO
CIN
AWAY
30@26
CIN BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 6
2022 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
Model confidence: CIN 50%Our line: CIN +0.0
CIN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
+0.0
OUR LINE
+100
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.125Net EPA / play+0.018
+0.077Offense EPA / play-0.038
-0.048Defense EPA / play-0.056
47.3%Offense success %45.7%
41.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 4. Off by 4.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -164 | +148 |
| Our fair price | +100 | -100 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CIN -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
61%
DIFFERENCE
-11%
Both figures are for CIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CIN
Joe Burrow
QB
350.7 SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
242.4 SEASON PPR
Joe Mixon
RB
239.5 SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
Joe Burrow4475 yd · 35 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Joe Mixon814 yd · 7 TD
Samaje Perine394 yd · 2 TD
Joe Burrow257 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Ja'Marr Chase87 rec · 1046 yd · 9 TD
Tee Higgins74 rec · 1029 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs NO
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NO by 0.0. The market has CIN at -3.0.
The model projects 48.6 combined points. The market total is 42.5.
Week 6 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.125 against NO +0.018.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
