Ravens vs Giants – Week 6 2022
BAL
NYG
BAL
AWAY
20@24
NYG BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 6
2022 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 20, New York Giants 24.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Ravens, 6 Giants.
Model confidence: BAL 61%Our line: BAL -3.9
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -3.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.019Net EPA / play-0.016
+0.004 (15)Offense EPA / play+0.030 (9)
-0.014 (15)Defense EPA / play+0.046 (28)
45.3% (11)Offense success %44.9% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL C-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but NYG won. Projected margin was 3.9, the model overestimated by 7.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
NYG
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@NYGW15 2024 | BAL 35, NYG 14 | BAL | W |
| NYG@BALW16 2020 | NYG 13, BAL 27 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs NYG
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BAL by 3.9. The market has BAL at -5.5.
New York Giants won, BAL 20, NYG 24. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -5.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 6, the Baltimore Ravens were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Giants were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.1, 2.1 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 35, NYG 14 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.019 against NYG -0.016.
