2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ NYG – Week 15 2024
BAL
NYG
BAL
AWAY
35@14
BAL +21
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
NYG
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BAL 79%Projected margin: -9.5
BAL
PICK SIDE
-16.5
SPREAD
-9.5
PROJ MARGIN
-1075
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 9.5. Actual: 21. Off by 11.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -16.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -1075 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -1800 | Won · +$0.09 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
NYG
home_underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
BAL
L.Jackson
QB
430.4SEASON PPR
D.Henry
RB
336.4SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
209.5SEASON PPR
NYG
M.Nabers
WR
273.6SEASON PPR
W.Robinson
WR
182.7SEASON PPR
T.Tracy
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@NYGW6 2022 | BAL 20, NYG 24 | BAL | L |
| NYG@BALW16 2020 | NYG 13, BAL 27 | BAL | W |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES