BAL @ NYG – Week 15 2024
BAL
NYG
BAL
AWAY
35@14
BAL BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 79%Our line: BAL -10.8
BAL
PICK SIDE
-16.5
MARKET SPREAD
-10.8
OUR LINE
-372
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.269Net EPA / play-0.170
+0.218Offense EPA / play-0.107
-0.051Defense EPA / play+0.063
50.0%Offense success %40.5%
39.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 10.8. Actual: 21. Off by 10.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BAL | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -1800 | +1000 |
| Our fair price | -372 | +372 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BAL -16.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.09
OUR NUMBER
79%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
91%
DIFFERENCE
-12%
Both figures are for BAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
NYG
home_underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
BAL
L.Jackson
QB
430.4 SEASON PPR
D.Henry
RB
336.4 SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
209.5 SEASON PPR
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Baltimore RavensPASSING
L.Jackson4172 yd · 41 TD · 4 INT
RUSHING
D.Henry1921 yd · 16 TD
L.Jackson915 yd · 4 TD
J.Hill228 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Z.Flowers74 rec · 1059 yd · 4 TD
R.Bateman45 rec · 756 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@NYGW6 2022 | BAL 20, NYG 24 | BAL | L |
| NYG@BALW16 2020 | NYG 13, BAL 27 | BAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs NYG
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 79% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BAL by 10.8. The market has BAL at -16.5.
The model projects 43.4 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 15 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Giants, BAL 20, NYG 24 in Week 6 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.269 against NYG -0.170.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
