Ravens vs Giants – Week 15 2024
BAL
NYG
BAL
AWAY
35@14
BAL BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 35, New York Giants 14.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 79% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 6 Giants.
Model confidence: BAL 79%Our line: BAL -10.8
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -16.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -10.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.269Net EPA / play-0.170
+0.218 (1)Offense EPA / play-0.107 (28)
-0.051 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.063 (28)
50.0% (2)Offense success %40.5% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 10.8. Actual: 21. Off by 10.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
NYG
home_underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@NYGW6 2022 | BAL 20, NYG 24 | BAL | L |
| NYG@BALW16 2020 | NYG 13, BAL 27 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs NYG
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 79% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BAL by 10.8. The market has BAL at -16.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 35, NYG 14. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 79% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -16.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 16.5 points.
In Week 15, the New York Giants were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.4, 0.1 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Giants, BAL 20, NYG 24 in Week 6 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.269 against NYG -0.170.
