Buccaneers vs Chargers – Week 15 2024
TB
LAC
TB
AWAY
40@17
TB BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40, Los Angeles Chargers 17.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Buccaneers, 2 Chargers.
Model confidence: TB 58%Our line: TB -2.9
ODDS
SPREAD
TB +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -2.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.115Net EPA / play+0.100
+0.130 (5)Offense EPA / play+0.039 (12)
+0.015 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.061 (7)
49.5% (3)Offense success %42.0% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 2.9. Actual: 23. Off by 20.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 26.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LAC
divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs LAC
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TB by 2.9. The market has TB at +3.0.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TB 40, LAC 17. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at +3.0, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 15, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 0.1 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, LAC 31, TB 38 in Week 4 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.115 against LAC +0.100.
