2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ LAC – Week 15 2024
TB
LAC
TB
AWAY
40@17
TB +23
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
LAC
HOME
TIER C
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TB 58%Projected margin: 0.1
TB
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
0.1
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 0.1. Actual: 23. Off by 23.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 26.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +136 | Won · +$1.54 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LAC
divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
365.8SEASON PPR
B.Irving
RB
244.4SEASON PPR
M.Evans
WR
240.4SEASON PPR
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
285.4SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
240.9SEASON PPR
J.Dobbins
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@TBW4 2020 | LAC 31, TB 38 | TB | W |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES