WAS @ NO – Week 15 2024
WAS
NO
WAS
AWAY
20@19
WAS BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
Model confidence: WAS 59%Our line: WAS -3.1
WAS
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.1
OUR LINE
-145
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.128Net EPA / play-0.101
+0.139Offense EPA / play-0.057
+0.011Defense EPA / play+0.044
48.5%Offense success %40.6%
43.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected WAS by 3.1. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 2.1 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | WAS | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -375 | +295 |
| Our fair price | -145 | +145 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD WAS -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.34
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
76%
DIFFERENCE
-17%
Both figures are for WAS. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
No noteworthy trends
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
WAS
J.Daniels
QB
355.8 SEASON PPR
T.McLaurin
WR
267.8 SEASON PPR
Z.Ertz
TE
177.4 SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
J.Daniels3568 yd · 25 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
J.Daniels891 yd · 6 TD
B.Robinson799 yd · 8 TD
A.Ekeler367 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
T.McLaurin82 rec · 1096 yd · 13 TD
Z.Ertz66 rec · 654 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs NO
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project WAS by 3.1. The market has WAS at -7.5.
The model projects 44.3 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 15 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NO 33, WAS 22 in Week 5 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Washington Commanders: WAS +0.128 against NO -0.101.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
