Commanders vs Saints – Week 15 2024
WAS
NO
WAS
AWAY
20@19
WAS BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 20, New Orleans Saints 19.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Commanders, 3 Saints.
Model confidence: WAS 59%Our line: WAS -3.1
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -3.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.128Net EPA / play-0.101
+0.139 (4)Offense EPA / play-0.057 (25)
+0.011 (15)Defense EPA / play+0.044 (24)
48.5% (4)Offense success %40.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected WAS by 3.1. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 2.1 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
No noteworthy trends
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs NO
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project WAS by 3.1. The market has WAS at -7.5.
Washington Commanders won, WAS 20, NO 19. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Washington Commanders at -7.5, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 15, the Washington Commanders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.3, 0.2 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NO 33, WAS 22 in Week 5 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Washington Commanders: WAS +0.128 against NO -0.101.
