NO @ WAS – Week 5 2021
NO
WAS
NO
AWAY
33@22
NO BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
Model confidence: NO 61%Our line: NO -3.6
NO
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.6
OUR LINE
-154
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.035Net EPA / play-0.124
-0.074Offense EPA / play-0.057
-0.109Defense EPA / play+0.067
40.6%Offense success %43.9%
39.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 3.6. Actual: 11. Off by 7.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NO | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -130 | +117 |
| Our fair price | -154 | +154 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NO -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.70
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
55%
DIFFERENCE
+6%
Both figures are for NO. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
WAS
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
234.7 SEASON PPR
Marquez Callaway
WR
151.8 SEASON PPR
Taysom Hill
TE
121.7 SEASON PPR
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Jameis Winston1170 yd · 14 TD · 3 INT
RUSHING
Alvin Kamara898 yd · 4 TD
Mark Ingram260 yd · 1 TD
Jameis Winston166 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Marquez Callaway46 rec · 698 yd · 6 TD
Deonte Harty36 rec · 570 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@NOW15 2024 | WAS 20, NO 19 | WAS | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs WAS
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 3.6. The market has NO at -2.5.
The model projects 47.9 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 5 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Washington Commanders, WAS 20, NO 19 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.035 against WAS -0.124.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
