2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NO @ WAS – Week 5 2021
NO
WAS
NO
AWAY
33@22
NO +11
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
WAS
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NO
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: NO 61%Projected margin: -4.1
NO
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-4.1
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 4.1. Actual: 11. Off by 6.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -130 | Won · +$0.70 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
WAS
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
234.7SEASON PPR
Marquez Callaway
WR
151.8SEASON PPR
Taysom Hill
TE
121.7SEASON PPR
WAS
Antonio Gibson
RB
229.1SEASON PPR
Taylor Heinicke
QB
222.9SEASON PPR
Terry McLaurin
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@NOW15 2024 | WAS 20, NO 19 | WAS | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES