TEN @ JAX – Week 5 2021
TEN
JAX
TEN
AWAY
37@19
TEN BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: TEN 69%Our line: TEN -6.7
TEN
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.7
OUR LINE
-223
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.055Net EPA / play-0.206
+0.022Offense EPA / play-0.088
-0.033Defense EPA / play+0.118
44.6%Offense success %44.0%
42.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TEN. Projected margin: 6.7. Actual: 18. Off by 11.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TEN | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -191 | +170 |
| Our fair price | -223 | +223 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TEN -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.56
OUR NUMBER
69%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
Both figures are for TEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
78°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TEN
Ryan Tannehill
QB
268.4 SEASON PPR
Derrick Henry
RB
193.3 SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
180.9 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill3734 yd · 21 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
Derrick Henry937 yd · 10 TD
D'Onta Foreman566 yd · 3 TD
Dontrell Hilliard350 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
A.J. Brown63 rec · 869 yd · 5 TD
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine38 rec · 476 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@JAXW18 2025 | TEN 7, JAX 41 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW13 2025 | JAX 25, TEN 3 | JAX | W |
| TEN@JAXW17 2024 | TEN 13, JAX 20 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW14 2024 | JAX 10, TEN 6 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW18 2023 | JAX 20, TEN 28 | JAX | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 69% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project TEN by 6.7. The market has TEN at -4.0.
The model projects 47.2 combined points. The market total is 49.0.
Week 5 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, TEN 7, JAX 41 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tennessee Titans: TEN +0.055 against JAX -0.206.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
