Titans vs Jaguars – Week 5 2021
TEN
JAX
TEN
AWAY
37@19
TEN BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 37, Jacksonville Jaguars 19.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 6 Titans, 1 Jaguars.
Model confidence: TEN 69%Our line: TEN -6.7
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -6.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.055Net EPA / play-0.206
+0.022 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (26)
-0.033 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.118 (31)
44.6% (15)Offense success %44.0% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TEN. Projected margin: 6.7. Actual: 18. Off by 11.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
78°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill3734 yd · 21 TD · 14 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@JAXW18 2025 | TEN 7, JAX 41 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW13 2025 | JAX 25, TEN 3 | JAX | W |
| TEN@JAXW17 2024 | TEN 13, JAX 20 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW14 2024 | JAX 10, TEN 6 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW18 2023 | JAX 20, TEN 28 | JAX | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs JAX
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 69% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project TEN by 6.7. The market has TEN at -4.0.
Tennessee Titans won, TEN 37, JAX 19. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tennessee Titans at -4.0, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 5, the Tennessee Titans were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.2, 1.8 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, TEN 7, JAX 41 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tennessee Titans: TEN +0.055 against JAX -0.206.
