Rams vs Seahawks – Week 5 2021
LA
SEA
LA
AWAY
26@17
LA BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 26, Seattle Seahawks 17.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 51% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Seahawks.
Model confidence: LA 51%Our line: LA -0.4
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -0.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
51%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.102Net EPA / play+0.003
+0.077 (8)Offense EPA / play+0.031 (14)
-0.025 (11)Defense EPA / play+0.028 (22)
46.4% (11)Offense success %43.2% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 0.4. Actual: 9. Off by 8.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)
SEA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
SEA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
Matthew Stafford4886 yd · 41 TD · 17 INT
RUSHING
Sony Michel845 yd · 4 TD
Darrell Henderson688 yd · 5 TD
Robert Woods46 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@SEAW16 2025 | LA 37, SEA 38 | LA | L |
| SEA@LAW11 2025 | SEA 19, LA 21 | LA | W |
| SEA@LAW18 2024 | SEA 30, LA 25 | LA | L |
| LA@SEAW9 2024 | LA 26, SEA 20 | LA | W |
| SEA@LAW11 2023 | SEA 16, LA 17 | SEA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs SEA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LA by 0.4. The market has LA at -2.5.
Los Angeles Rams won, LA 26, SEA 17. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 51% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -2.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 5, the Seattle Seahawks were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.9, 4.6 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2021 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, LA 37, SEA 38 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.102 against SEA +0.003.
