2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PHI @ CAR – Week 5 2021
PHI
CAR
PHI
AWAY
21@18
PHI +3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
CAR
HOME
TIER B
PICK: CAR
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CAR 59%Projected margin: 3.9
CAR
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
3.9
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR B-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CAR but PHI won. Projected margin was 3.9 -- the model overestimated by 6.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | CAR market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -139 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
13 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
312.2SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
185.6SEASON PPR
Dallas Goedert
TE
165.0SEASON PPR
CAR
DJ Moore
WR
237.5SEASON PPR
Sam Darnold
QB
157.3SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@PHIW14 2024 | CAR 16, PHI 22 | PHI | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES