PHI @ CAR – Week 5 2021
PHI
CAR
PHI
AWAY
21@18
PHI BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
Model confidence: CAR 59%Our line: CAR -3.1
CAR
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.1
OUR LINE
-145
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.059Net EPA / play-0.093
+0.070Offense EPA / play-0.138
+0.011Defense EPA / play-0.044
46.9%Offense success %40.9%
46.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR B-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CAR but PHI won. Projected margin was 3.1, the model overestimated by 6.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PHI | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +126 | -139 |
| Our fair price | +145 | -145 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CAR -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
57%
DIFFERENCE
+2%
Both figures are for CAR. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
312.2 SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
185.6 SEASON PPR
Dallas Goedert
TE
165.0 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Philadelphia EaglesPASSING
Jalen Hurts3144 yd · 16 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Jalen Hurts784 yd · 10 TD
Miles Sanders754 yd · 0 TD
Jordan Howard406 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
DeVonta Smith64 rec · 916 yd · 5 TD
Dallas Goedert56 rec · 830 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@PHIW14 2024 | CAR 16, PHI 22 | PHI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs CAR
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Carolina Panthers at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CAR by 3.1. The market has CAR at -2.5.
The model projects 48.2 combined points. The market total is 46.0.
Week 5 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, CAR 16, PHI 22 in Week 14 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.059 against CAR -0.093.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
