Eagles vs Panthers – Week 5 2021
PHI
CAR
PHI
AWAY
21@18
PHI BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 21, Carolina Panthers 18.
Going in, our model had favored Carolina Panthers at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Eagles, 3 Panthers.
Model confidence: CAR 59%Our line: CAR -3.1
ODDS
SPREAD
CAR -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CAR -3.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CAR · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.059Net EPA / play-0.093
+0.070 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.138 (30)
+0.011 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.044 (7)
46.9% (8)Offense success %40.9% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR B-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CAR but PHI won. Projected margin was 3.1, the model overestimated by 6.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@PHIW6 2026 | CAR 25, PHI 14 | PHI | L |
| CAR@PHIW14 2024 | CAR 16, PHI 22 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs CAR
Our model takes Carolina Panthers at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CAR by 3.1. The market has CAR at -2.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, PHI 21, CAR 18. Our model had favored Carolina Panthers at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Carolina Panthers at -2.5, meaning the book expects Carolina Panthers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 5, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Carolina Panthers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.2, 2.2 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Carolina Panthers, CAR 25, PHI 14 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.059 against CAR -0.093.
