2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SF @ ARI – Week 5 2021
SF
ARI
SF
AWAY
10@17
ARI +7
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
ARI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: ARI
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: ARI 60%Projected margin: 3.1
ARI
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
3.1
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ARI. Projected margin: 3.1. Actual: 7. Off by 3.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | ARI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -266 | Won · +$0.42 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
SF
Deebo Samuel Sr.
WR
339.0SEASON PPR
Jimmy Garoppolo
QB
227.5SEASON PPR
George Kittle
TE
198.0SEASON PPR
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
300.5SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
257.7SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@ARIW11 2025 | SF 41, ARI 22 | SF | W |
| ARI@SFW3 2025 | ARI 15, SF 16 | ARI | L |
| SF@ARIW18 2024 | SF 24, ARI 47 | ARI | W |
| ARI@SFW5 2024 | ARI 24, SF 23 | SF | L |
| SF@ARIW15 2023 | SF 45, ARI 29 | SF | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES