49ers vs Cardinals – Week 5 2021
SF
ARI
SF
AWAY
10@17
ARI BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 10, Arizona Cardinals 17.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 49ers, 2 Cardinals.
Model confidence: ARI 60%Our line: ARI -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -3.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.120Net EPA / play+0.122
+0.087 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.073 (9)
-0.034 (8)Defense EPA / play-0.049 (6)
45.7% (12)Offense success %46.8% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ARI. Projected margin: 3.3. Actual: 7. Off by 3.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
SF
339.0 SEASON PPR
Jimmy Garoppolo
QB
227.5 SEASON PPR
198.0 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
Jimmy Garoppolo3810 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@SFW3 2026 | ARI 30, SF 36 | SF | W |
| SF@ARIW11 2025 | SF 41, ARI 22 | SF | W |
| ARI@SFW3 2025 | ARI 15, SF 16 | ARI | L |
| SF@ARIW18 2024 | SF 24, ARI 47 | ARI | W |
| ARI@SFW5 2024 | ARI 24, SF 23 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs ARI
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ARI by 3.3. The market has ARI at -6.0.
Arizona Cardinals won, SF 10, ARI 17. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at -6.0, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 5, the San Francisco 49ers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.2, 1.3 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, ARI 30, SF 36 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Arizona Cardinals: SF +0.120 against ARI +0.122.
