Giants vs Cowboys – Week 5 2021
NYG
DAL
NYG
AWAY
20@44
DAL BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 5
2021 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 20, Dallas Cowboys 44.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Giants, 2 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 61%Our line: DAL -3.9
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -3.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.192Net EPA / play+0.187
-0.161 (32)Offense EPA / play+0.096 (5)
+0.031 (23)Defense EPA / play-0.091 (3)
39.3% (30)Offense success %47.0% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 3.9. Actual: 24. Off by 20.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DAL
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 5-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@NYGW1 2026 | DAL 20, NYG 28 | DAL | L |
| DAL@NYGW18 2025 | DAL 17, NYG 34 | DAL | L |
| NYG@DALW2 2025 | NYG 37, DAL 40 | DAL | W |
| NYG@DALW13 2024 | NYG 20, DAL 27 | DAL | W |
| DAL@NYGW4 2024 | DAL 20, NYG 15 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 3.9. The market has DAL at -7.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, NYG 20, DAL 44. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -7.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 5, the New York Giants were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.9, 5.1 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
New York Giants, DAL 20, NYG 28 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Dallas Cowboys: NYG -0.192 against DAL +0.187.
