Giants vs Cowboys – Week 13 2024
NYG
DAL
NYG
AWAY
20@27
DAL BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 20, Dallas Cowboys 27.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Giants, 5 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 68%Our line: DAL -6.3
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -6.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.170Net EPA / play-0.192
-0.107 (28)Offense EPA / play-0.109 (29)
+0.063 (28)Defense EPA / play+0.083 (30)
40.5% (25)Offense success %40.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DAL by 6.3. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 0.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
home_underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@NYGW1 2026 | DAL 20, NYG 28 | DAL | L |
| DAL@NYGW18 2025 | DAL 17, NYG 34 | DAL | L |
| NYG@DALW2 2025 | NYG 37, DAL 40 | DAL | W |
| DAL@NYGW4 2024 | DAL 20, NYG 15 | DAL | W |
| NYG@DALW10 2023 | NYG 17, DAL 49 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 6.3. The market has DAL at -4.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, NYG 20, DAL 27. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -4.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 13, the New York Giants were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 6.5 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2024 season, THU 4:30 PM.
New York Giants, DAL 20, NYG 28 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, New York Giants: NYG -0.170 against DAL -0.192.
