49ers vs Bills – Week 13 2024
SF
BUF
SF
AWAY
10@35
BUF BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 10, Buffalo Bills 35.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 75% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 6 49ers, 2 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 75%Our line: BUF -9.3
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -9.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.028Net EPA / play+0.197
+0.069 (10)Offense EPA / play+0.189 (2)
+0.041 (23)Defense EPA / play-0.009 (12)
46.1% (11)Offense success %47.5% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 9.3. Actual: 25. Off by 15.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.5 points.
COLD GAME
28°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
28°F
WIND
11 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@SFW13 2020 | BUF 34, SF 24 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 75% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BUF by 9.3. The market has BUF at -6.5.
Buffalo Bills won, SF 10, BUF 35. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 75% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -6.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 13, the San Francisco 49ers were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.2, 2.2 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2024 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 34, SF 24 in Week 13 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Buffalo Bills: SF +0.028 against BUF +0.197.
