2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SF @ BUF – Week 13 2024
SF
BUF
SF
AWAY
10@35
BUF +25
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BUF 75%Projected margin: 8.5
BUF
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
8.5
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 8.5. Actual: 25. Off by 16.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.5 points.
COLD GAME
28°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -340 | Won · +$0.39 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
28°F
WIND
11 MPH
COLD GAME
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
SF
B.Purdy
QB
266.9SEASON PPR
G.Kittle
TE
236.6SEASON PPR
J.Jennings
WR
210.5SEASON PPR
BUF
J.Allen
QB
372.3SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
266.7SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@SFW13 2020 | BUF 34, SF 24 | BUF | W |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES