SF @ BUF – Week 13 2024
SF
BUF
SF
AWAY
10@35
BUF BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 75%Our line: BUF -9.3
BUF
PICK SIDE
-6.5
MARKET SPREAD
-9.3
OUR LINE
-306
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.028Net EPA / play+0.197
+0.069Offense EPA / play+0.189
+0.041Defense EPA / play-0.009
46.1%Offense success %47.5%
45.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 9.3. Actual: 25. Off by 15.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.5 points.
COLD GAME
28°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SF | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +270 | -340 |
| Our fair price | +306 | -306 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.39
OUR NUMBER
75%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
74%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
28°F
WIND
11 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
SF
B.Purdy
QB
266.9 SEASON PPR
G.Kittle
TE
236.6 SEASON PPR
J.Jennings
WR
210.5 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
B.Purdy3864 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Mason789 yd · 3 TD
I.Guerendo420 yd · 4 TD
B.Purdy323 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
G.Kittle78 rec · 1106 yd · 8 TD
J.Jennings77 rec · 975 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@SFW13 2020 | BUF 34, SF 24 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs BUF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 75% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BUF by 9.3. The market has BUF at -6.5.
The model projects 47.2 combined points. The market total is 45.0.
Week 13 of the 2024 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 34, SF 24 in Week 13 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Buffalo Bills: SF +0.028 against BUF +0.197.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
