CLE @ DEN – Week 13 2024
CLE
DEN
CLE
AWAY
32@41
DEN BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 72%Our line: DEN -7.8
DEN
PICK SIDE
-6.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.8
OUR LINE
-256
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.201Net EPA / play+0.138
-0.183Offense EPA / play+0.020
+0.017Defense EPA / play-0.118
37.0%Offense success %42.7%
41.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DEN by 7.8. Actual: 9 points. The model was within 1.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CLE | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +235 | -290 |
| Our fair price | +256 | -256 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DEN -6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.39
OUR NUMBER
72%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
71%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
Both figures are for DEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
48°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CLE
J.Jeudy
WR
240.9 SEASON PPR
D.Njoku
TE
148.5 SEASON PPR
J.Ford
RB
134.0 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
J.Winston2121 yd · 13 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Ford565 yd · 3 TD
N.Chubb332 yd · 3 TD
D.Foreman232 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
J.Jeudy90 rec · 1229 yd · 4 TD
E.Moore61 rec · 538 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@DENW12 2023 | CLE 12, DEN 29 | CLE | L |
| DEN@CLEW7 2021 | DEN 14, CLE 17 | CLE | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project DEN by 7.8. The market has DEN at -6.5.
The model projects 45.6 combined points. The market total is 41.5.
Week 13 of the 2024 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Denver Broncos, CLE 12, DEN 29 in Week 12 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Denver Broncos: CLE -0.201 against DEN +0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
