Browns vs Broncos – Week 13 2024
CLE
DEN
CLE
AWAY
32@41
DEN BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 32, Denver Broncos 41.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Browns, 1 Broncos.
Model confidence: DEN 72%Our line: DEN -7.8
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -7.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.201Net EPA / play+0.138
-0.183 (32)Offense EPA / play+0.020 (14)
+0.017 (18)Defense EPA / play-0.118 (1)
37.0% (32)Offense success %42.7% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DEN by 7.8. Actual: 9 points. The model was within 1.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
48°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@DENW12 2023 | CLE 12, DEN 29 | CLE | L |
| DEN@CLEW7 2021 | DEN 14, CLE 17 | CLE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project DEN by 7.8. The market has DEN at -6.5.
Denver Broncos won, CLE 32, DEN 41. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at -6.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 13, the Cleveland Browns were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 4.1 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2024 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Denver Broncos, CLE 12, DEN 29 in Week 12 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Denver Broncos: CLE -0.201 against DEN +0.138.
