Dolphins vs Packers – Week 13 2024
MIA
GB
MIA
AWAY
17@30
GB BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 17, Green Bay Packers 30.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Dolphins, 3 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 69%Our line: GB -6.8
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -6.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.017Net EPA / play+0.146
-0.039 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.079 (8)
-0.022 (9)Defense EPA / play-0.067 (4)
44.3% (15)Offense success %44.9% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 6.8. Actual: 13. Off by 6.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
COLD GAME
27°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
No noteworthy trends
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
27°F
WIND
10 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@MIAW16 2022 | GB 26, MIA 20 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 6.8. The market has GB at -3.5.
Green Bay Packers won, MIA 17, GB 30. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -3.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 13, the Miami Dolphins were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 1.0 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2024 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 26, MIA 20 in Week 16 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Green Bay Packers: MIA -0.017 against GB +0.146.
