2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ARI @ MIN – Week 13 2024
ARI
MIN
ARI
AWAY
22@23
MIN +1
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
MIN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: MIN
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: MIN 64%Projected margin: 3.7
MIN
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
3.7
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 3.7. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 2.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | MIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -185 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
MIN
divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
ARI
K.Murray
QB
297.2SEASON PPR
J.Conner
RB
253.8SEASON PPR
T.McBride
TE
243.8SEASON PPR
MIN
J.Jefferson
WR
317.5SEASON PPR
S.Darnold
QB
308.0SEASON PPR
A.Jones
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@MINW8 2022 | ARI 26, MIN 34 | MIN | W |
| MIN@ARIW2 2021 | MIN 33, ARI 34 | ARI | W |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES