Cardinals vs Vikings – Week 13 2024
ARI
MIN
ARI
AWAY
22@23
MIN BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 13
2024 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 22, Minnesota Vikings 23.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Vikings.
Model confidence: MIN 64%Our line: MIN -4.9
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -4.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.011Net EPA / play+0.103
+0.067 (11)Offense EPA / play+0.016 (15)
+0.056 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.086 (3)
47.3% (8)Offense success %45.6% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIN. Projected margin: 4.9. Actual: 1. Off by 3.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
MIN
divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
K.Murray3851 yd · 21 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
J.Conner1094 yd · 8 TD
K.Murray572 yd · 5 TD
T.Benson291 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
T.McBride111 rec · 1146 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@MINW8 2022 | ARI 26, MIN 34 | MIN | W |
| MIN@ARIW2 2021 | MIN 33, ARI 34 | ARI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs MIN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 4.9. The market has MIN at -3.5.
Minnesota Vikings won, ARI 22, MIN 23. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -3.5, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 13, the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 0.3 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, ARI 26, MIN 34 in Week 8 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Minnesota Vikings: ARI +0.011 against MIN +0.103.
