CAR @ PHI – Week 14 2024
CAR
PHI
CAR
AWAY
16@22
PHI BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 14
2024 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
Model confidence: PHI 79%Our line: PHI -10.8
PHI
PICK SIDE
-14.0
MARKET SPREAD
-10.8
OUR LINE
-374
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.213Net EPA / play+0.212
-0.053Offense EPA / play+0.114
+0.160Defense EPA / play-0.098
41.3%Offense success %45.3%
50.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 10.8. Actual: 6. Off by 4.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CAR | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +625 | -950 |
| Our fair price | +374 | -374 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PHI -14.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.13
OUR NUMBER
79%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
87%
DIFFERENCE
-8%
Both figures are for PHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
PHI
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
55°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CAR
C.Hubbard
RB
241.6 SEASON PPR
B.Young
QB
195.0 SEASON PPR
A.Thielen
WR
130.8 SEASON PPR
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
B.Young2403 yd · 15 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
C.Hubbard1195 yd · 10 TD
B.Young249 yd · 6 TD
M.Sanders205 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
A.Thielen45 rec · 558 yd · 5 TD
X.Legette49 rec · 497 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@CARW5 2021 | PHI 21, CAR 18 | CAR | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs PHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 79% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project PHI by 10.8. The market has PHI at -14.0.
The model projects 45.9 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 14 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 21, CAR 18 in Week 5 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Philadelphia Eagles: CAR -0.213 against PHI +0.212.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
