Bills vs Rams – Week 14 2024
BUF
LA
BUF
AWAY
42@44
LA BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 14
2024 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 42, Los Angeles Rams 44.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Rams.
Model confidence: BUF 69%Our line: BUF -6.5
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -6.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.197Net EPA / play-0.030
+0.189 (2)Offense EPA / play+0.014 (16)
-0.009 (12)Defense EPA / play+0.044 (25)
47.5% (7)Offense success %46.8% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick misses. LA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but LA won. Projected margin was 6.5, the model overestimated by 8.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
LA
road_favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)home_underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@LAW5 2026 | BUF 37, LA 34 | LA | L |
| BUF@LAW1 2022 | BUF 31, LA 10 | BUF | W |
| LA@BUFW3 2020 | LA 32, BUF 35 | LA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs LA
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 6.5. The market has BUF at -3.5.
Los Angeles Rams won, BUF 42, LA 44. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -3.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 14, the Los Angeles Rams were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 4.0 below the market.
Week 14 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 37, LA 34 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.197 against LA -0.030.
