2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BUF @ LA – Week 14 2024
BUF
LA
BUF
AWAY
42@44
LA +2
FINAL · WEEK 14
2024 SEASON
LA
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BUF
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BUF 69%Projected margin: -4.4
BUF
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-4.4
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick misses. LA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but LA won. Projected margin was 4.4 -- the model overestimated by 6.4 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -192 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
LA
road_favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)home_underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
BUF
J.Allen
QB
372.3SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
266.7SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
182.5SEASON PPR
LA
K.Williams
RB
272.1SEASON PPR
M.Stafford
QB
214.6SEASON PPR
P.Nacua
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@LAW1 2022 | BUF 31, LA 10 | BUF | W |
| LA@BUFW3 2020 | LA 32, BUF 35 | LA | L |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES