MIA @ HOU – Week 15 2024
MIA
HOU
MIA
AWAY
12@20
HOU BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
Model confidence: HOU 58%Our line: HOU -2.8
HOU
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-2.8
OUR LINE
-140
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.017Net EPA / play+0.015
-0.039Offense EPA / play-0.050
-0.022Defense EPA / play-0.065
44.3%Offense success %38.8%
43.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 2.8. Actual: 8. Off by 5.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIA | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +130 | -155 |
| Our fair price | +140 | -140 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD HOU -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.70
OUR NUMBER
58%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
58%
DIFFERENCE
-0%
Both figures are for HOU. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
No noteworthy trends
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
299.9 SEASON PPR
J.Smith
TE
222.3 SEASON PPR
T.Hill
WR
218.2 SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
T.Tagovailoa2867 yd · 19 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
D.Achane907 yd · 6 TD
R.Mostert278 yd · 2 TD
J.Wright249 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
T.Hill81 rec · 959 yd · 6 TD
J.Smith88 rec · 884 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@MIAW12 2022 | HOU 15, MIA 30 | MIA | W |
| HOU@MIAW9 2021 | HOU 9, MIA 17 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs HOU
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Houston Texans at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project HOU by 2.8. The market has HOU at -2.5.
The model projects 46.2 combined points. The market total is 46.5.
Week 15 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, HOU 15, MIA 30 in Week 12 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Houston Texans: MIA -0.017 against HOU +0.015.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
