2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ HOU – Week 15 2024
MIA
HOU
MIA
AWAY
12@20
HOU +8
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER C
PICK: HOU
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: HOU 58%Projected margin: 1.0
HOU
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
1.0
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 1.0. Actual: 8. Off by 7.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +130 | Won · +$0.70 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
No noteworthy trends
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
299.9SEASON PPR
J.Smith
TE
222.3SEASON PPR
T.Hill
WR
218.2SEASON PPR
HOU
J.Mixon
RB
240.5SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
220.4SEASON PPR
N.Collins
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@MIAW12 2022 | HOU 15, MIA 30 | MIA | W |
| HOU@MIAW9 2021 | HOU 9, MIA 17 | MIA | W |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES