Dolphins vs Texans – Week 15 2024
MIA
HOU
MIA
AWAY
12@20
HOU BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 12, Houston Texans 20.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Dolphins, 1 Texans.
Model confidence: HOU 58%Our line: HOU -2.8
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -2.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.017Net EPA / play+0.015
-0.039 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.050 (22)
-0.022 (9)Defense EPA / play-0.065 (5)
44.3% (15)Offense success %38.8% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 2.8. Actual: 8. Off by 5.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
No noteworthy trends
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@MIAW12 2022 | HOU 15, MIA 30 | MIA | W |
| HOU@MIAW9 2021 | HOU 9, MIA 17 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs HOU
Our model takes Houston Texans at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project HOU by 2.8. The market has HOU at -2.5.
Houston Texans won, MIA 12, HOU 20. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Houston Texans at -2.5, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 15, the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 0.3 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, HOU 15, MIA 30 in Week 12 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Houston Texans: MIA -0.017 against HOU +0.015.
