2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ DEN – Week 15 2024
IND
DEN
IND
AWAY
13@31
DEN +18
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DEN
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: DEN 68%Projected margin: 4.9
DEN
PICK SIDE
-4.5
SPREAD
4.9
PROJ MARGIN
-191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 4.9. Actual: 18. Off by 13.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.5 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -238 | Won · +$0.52 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
55°F
WIND
15 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
IND
J.Taylor
RB
246.7SEASON PPR
J.Downs
WR
182.2SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
165.8SEASON PPR
DEN
B.Nix
QB
317.2SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
240.3SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@INDW2 2025 | DEN 28, IND 29 | DEN | L |
| IND@DENW5 2022 | IND 12, DEN 9 | IND | W |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES