IND @ DEN – Week 15 2024
IND
DEN
IND
AWAY
13@31
DEN BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 15
2024 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 68%Our line: DEN -6.2
DEN
PICK SIDE
-4.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.2
OUR LINE
-211
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.061Net EPA / play+0.138
-0.057Offense EPA / play+0.020
+0.004Defense EPA / play-0.118
40.2%Offense success %42.7%
43.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 6.2. Actual: 18. Off by 11.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | IND | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +195 | -238 |
| Our fair price | +211 | -211 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DEN -4.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.52
OUR NUMBER
68%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
68%
DIFFERENCE
+0%
Both figures are for DEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
55°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
IND
J.Taylor
RB
246.7 SEASON PPR
J.Downs
WR
182.2 SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
165.8 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
A.Richardson1814 yd · 8 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Taylor1431 yd · 11 TD
A.Richardson499 yd · 6 TD
T.Sermon159 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
A.Pierce37 rec · 824 yd · 7 TD
M.Pittman69 rec · 808 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@INDW2 2025 | DEN 28, IND 29 | DEN | L |
| IND@DENW5 2022 | IND 12, DEN 9 | IND | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 6.2. The market has DEN at -4.5.
The model projects 45.5 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 15 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, DEN 28, IND 29 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Denver Broncos: IND -0.061 against DEN +0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
