Bills vs Chiefs – Week 6 2022
BUF
KC
BUF
AWAY
24@20
BUF BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 6
2022 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 24, Kansas City Chiefs 20.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bills, 3 Chiefs.
Model confidence: BUF 57%Our line: BUF -2.4
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -2.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.168Net EPA / play+0.204
+0.116 (2)Offense EPA / play+0.186 (1)
-0.052 (7)Defense EPA / play-0.019 (14)
49.0% (2)Offense success %50.4% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BUF by 2.4. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
KC
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@BUFW9 2025 | KC 21, BUF 28 | BUF | W |
| KC@BUFW11 2024 | KC 21, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@KCW14 2023 | BUF 20, KC 17 | KC | L |
| BUF@KCW5 2021 | BUF 38, KC 20 | BUF | W |
| KC@BUFW6 2020 | KC 26, BUF 17 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs KC
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 57% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BUF by 2.4. The market has BUF at -2.5.
Buffalo Bills won, BUF 24, KC 20. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -2.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 6, the Buffalo Bills were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 54.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 7.6 below the market.
Week 6 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Buffalo Bills, KC 21, BUF 28 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Kansas City Chiefs: BUF +0.168 against KC +0.204.
