BUF @ KC – Week 6 2022
BUF
KC
BUF
AWAY
24@20
BUF BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 6
2022 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 57%Our line: BUF -2.4
BUF
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-2.4
OUR LINE
-133
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.168Net EPA / play+0.204
+0.116Offense EPA / play+0.186
-0.052Defense EPA / play-0.019
49.0%Offense success %50.4%
43.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BUF by 2.4. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BUF | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -146 | +132 |
| Our fair price | -133 | +133 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.70
OUR NUMBER
57%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
58%
DIFFERENCE
-1%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
KC
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
395.5 SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
316.6 SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
177.9 SEASON PPR
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Buffalo BillsPASSING
Josh Allen4283 yd · 35 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
Devin Singletary819 yd · 5 TD
Josh Allen762 yd · 7 TD
James Cook507 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Stefon Diggs108 rec · 1429 yd · 11 TD
Gabe Davis48 rec · 836 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@BUFW9 2025 | KC 21, BUF 28 | BUF | W |
| KC@BUFW11 2024 | KC 21, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@KCW14 2023 | BUF 20, KC 17 | KC | L |
| BUF@KCW5 2021 | BUF 38, KC 20 | BUF | W |
| KC@BUFW6 2020 | KC 26, BUF 17 | KC | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs KC
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 57% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BUF by 2.4. The market has BUF at -2.5.
The model projects 46.4 combined points. The market total is 54.0.
Week 6 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Buffalo Bills, KC 21, BUF 28 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Kansas City Chiefs: BUF +0.168 against KC +0.204.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
