Cardinals vs Bears – Week 13 2021
ARI
CHI
ARI
AWAY
33@22
ARI BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 33, Chicago Bears 22.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cardinals, 6 Bears.
Model confidence: ARI 64%Our line: ARI -4.9
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -4.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.122Net EPA / play-0.127
+0.073 (9)Offense EPA / play-0.100 (29)
-0.049 (6)Defense EPA / play+0.026 (21)
46.8% (9)Offense success %41.2% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ARI. Projected margin: 4.9. Actual: 11. Off by 6.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
COLD GAME
34°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
34°F
WIND
8 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
300.5 SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
257.7 SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
207.6 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray3787 yd · 24 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
James Conner752 yd · 15 TD
Chase Edmonds592 yd · 2 TD
Kyler Murray423 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Christian Kirk77 rec · 982 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@ARIW9 2024 | CHI 9, ARI 29 | ARI | W |
| ARI@CHIW16 2023 | ARI 16, CHI 27 | CHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs CHI
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ARI by 4.9. The market has ARI at -7.5.
Arizona Cardinals won, ARI 33, CHI 22. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at -7.5, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 13, the Arizona Cardinals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.4, 3.9 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, CHI 9, ARI 29 in Week 9 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Arizona Cardinals: ARI +0.122 against CHI -0.127.
