Giants vs Dolphins – Week 13 2021
NYG
MIA
NYG
AWAY
9@20
MIA BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 9, Miami Dolphins 20.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 6 Giants, 3 Dolphins.
Model confidence: MIA 58%Our line: MIA -2.8
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -2.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.192Net EPA / play-0.031
-0.161 (32)Offense EPA / play-0.059 (22)
+0.031 (23)Defense EPA / play-0.028 (10)
39.3% (30)Offense success %41.3% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 2.8. Actual: 11. Off by 8.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@MIAW5 2023 | NYG 16, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 2.8. The market has MIA at -6.5.
Miami Dolphins won, NYG 9, MIA 20. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -6.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 13, the New York Giants were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 6.6 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, NYG 16, MIA 31 in Week 5 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Miami Dolphins: NYG -0.192 against MIA -0.031.
