NYG @ MIA – Week 13 2021
NYG
MIA
NYG
AWAY
9@20
MIA BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 58%Our line: MIA -2.8
MIA
PICK SIDE
-6.5
MARKET SPREAD
-2.8
OUR LINE
-139
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.192Net EPA / play-0.031
-0.161Offense EPA / play-0.059
+0.031Defense EPA / play-0.028
39.3%Offense success %41.3%
46.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 2.8. Actual: 11. Off by 8.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYG | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +253 | -293 |
| Our fair price | +139 | -139 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA -6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.39
OUR NUMBER
58%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
72%
DIFFERENCE
-14%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NYG
Daniel Jones
QB
167.5 SEASON PPR
Saquon Barkley
RB
148.6 SEASON PPR
Devontae Booker
RB
144.1 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York GiantsPASSING
Daniel Jones2428 yd · 10 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Saquon Barkley593 yd · 2 TD
Devontae Booker593 yd · 2 TD
Daniel Jones298 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Kenny Golladay37 rec · 521 yd · 0 TD
Kadarius Toney39 rec · 420 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@MIAW5 2023 | NYG 16, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 2.8. The market has MIA at -6.5.
The model projects 46.6 combined points. The market total is 40.0.
Week 13 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, NYG 16, MIA 31 in Week 5 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Miami Dolphins: NYG -0.192 against MIA -0.031.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
