Giants vs Dolphins – Week 5 2023
NYG
MIA
NYG
AWAY
16@31
MIA BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 16, Miami Dolphins 31.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 75% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Giants, 2 Dolphins.
Model confidence: MIA 75%Our line: MIA -9.3
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -12.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -9.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.155Net EPA / play+0.136
-0.174 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.097 (4)
-0.019 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.039 (15)
37.9% (30)Offense success %47.2% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 9.3. Actual: 15. Off by 5.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
88°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NYG
223.2 SEASON PPR
Darius Slayton
WR
151.0 SEASON PPR
133.2 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@MIAW13 2021 | NYG 9, MIA 20 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 75% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project MIA by 9.3. The market has MIA at -12.5.
Miami Dolphins won, NYG 16, MIA 31. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 75% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -12.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 12.5 points.
In Week 5, the New York Giants were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 1.2 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, NYG 9, MIA 20 in Week 13 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Miami Dolphins: NYG -0.155 against MIA +0.136.
