2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYG @ MIA – Week 5 2023
NYG
MIA
NYG
AWAY
16@31
MIA +15
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: MIA
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: MIA 75%Projected margin: 7.6
MIA
PICK SIDE
-12.5
SPREAD
7.6
PROJ MARGIN
-604
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 7.6. Actual: 15. Off by 7.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -12.5 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -604 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -750 | Won · +$0.17 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
88°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NYG
Saquon Barkley
RB
223.2SEASON PPR
Darius Slayton
WR
151.0SEASON PPR
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR
133.2SEASON PPR
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
376.4SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
270.4SEASON PPR
Raheem Mostert
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@MIAW13 2021 | NYG 9, MIA 20 | MIA | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES