NYG @ MIA – Week 5 2023
NYG
MIA
NYG
AWAY
16@31
MIA BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 75%Our line: MIA -9.3
MIA
PICK SIDE
-12.5
MARKET SPREAD
-9.3
OUR LINE
-308
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.155Net EPA / play+0.136
-0.174Offense EPA / play+0.097
-0.019Defense EPA / play-0.039
37.9%Offense success %47.2%
44.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 9.3. Actual: 15. Off by 5.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYG | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +525 | -750 |
| Our fair price | +308 | -308 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA -12.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.17
OUR NUMBER
75%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
85%
DIFFERENCE
-9%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
88°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NYG
Saquon Barkley
RB
223.2 SEASON PPR
Darius Slayton
WR
151.0 SEASON PPR
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR
133.2 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York GiantsPASSING
Tyrod Taylor1341 yd · 5 TD · 3 INT
RUSHING
Saquon Barkley962 yd · 6 TD
Daniel Jones206 yd · 1 TD
Tyrod Taylor197 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Darius Slayton50 rec · 770 yd · 4 TD
Darren Waller52 rec · 552 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@MIAW13 2021 | NYG 9, MIA 20 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 75% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project MIA by 9.3. The market has MIA at -12.5.
The model projects 46.3 combined points. The market total is 47.5.
Week 5 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, NYG 9, MIA 20 in Week 13 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Miami Dolphins: NYG -0.155 against MIA +0.136.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
