Texans vs Falcons – Week 5 2023
HOU
ATL
HOU
AWAY
19@21
ATL BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 19, Atlanta Falcons 21.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Texans.
Model confidence: ATL 59%Our line: ATL -3.2
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -3.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.014Net EPA / play-0.040
-0.028 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.099 (26)
-0.043 (13)Defense EPA / play-0.059 (11)
40.9% (23)Offense success %41.1% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ATL by 3.2. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 1.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
ATL
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs ATL
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ATL by 3.2. The market has ATL at -2.5.
Atlanta Falcons won, HOU 19, ATL 21. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -2.5, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 5, the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 3.6 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.014 against ATL -0.040.
