2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DAL @ SF – Week 5 2023
DAL
SF
DAL
AWAY
10@42
SF +32
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
SF
HOME
TIER B
PICK: SF
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: SF 66%Projected margin: 4.4
SF
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
4.4
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 4.4. Actual: 32. Off by 27.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 28.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -180 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)
SF
Road Favorite 6-3 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
78°F
WIND
10 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DAL
CeeDee Lamb
WR
403.2SEASON PPR
Dak Prescott
QB
342.8SEASON PPR
Tony Pollard
RB
222.6SEASON PPR
SF
Christian McCaffrey
RB
391.3SEASON PPR
Brock Purdy
QB
295.6SEASON PPR
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@SFW8 2024 | DAL 24, SF 30 | SF | W |
| SF@DALW15 2020 | SF 33, DAL 41 | SF | L |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES