Cowboys vs 49ers – Week 5 2023
DAL
SF
DAL
AWAY
10@42
SF BY 32
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 10, San Francisco 49ers 42.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cowboys, 1 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 66%Our line: SF -5.6
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -5.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.220Net EPA / play+0.255
+0.106 (3)Offense EPA / play+0.174 (1)
-0.114 (4)Defense EPA / play-0.082 (7)
47.4% (3)Offense success %51.1% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 5.6. Actual: 32. Off by 26.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 28.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)
SF
Road Favorite 6-3 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
78°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@SFW8 2024 | DAL 24, SF 30 | SF | W |
| SF@DALW15 2020 | SF 33, DAL 41 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 5.6. The market has SF at -3.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, DAL 10, SF 42. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -3.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 5, the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 0.9 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2023 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, DAL 24, SF 30 in Week 8 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, San Francisco 49ers: DAL +0.220 against SF +0.255.
