2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
GB @ LV – Week 5 2023
GB
LV
GB
AWAY
13@17
LV +4
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER B
PICK: GB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: GB 63%Projected margin: -1.6
GB
PICK SIDE
+1.0
SPREAD
-1.6
PROJ MARGIN
+115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but LV won. Projected margin was 1.6 -- the model overestimated by 5.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.0 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | +115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -102 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
GB
Jordan Love
QB
319.1SEASON PPR
Jayden Reed
WR
217.2SEASON PPR
Romeo Doubs
WR
174.4SEASON PPR
LV
Davante Adams
WR
265.4SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
218.6SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES