Packers vs Raiders – Week 5 2023
GB
LV
GB
AWAY
13@17
LV BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 13, Las Vegas Raiders 17.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Packers, 1 Raiders.
Model confidence: GB 63%Our line: GB -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
GB +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -4.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.056Net EPA / play-0.037
+0.064 (6)Offense EPA / play-0.097 (25)
+0.008 (24)Defense EPA / play-0.060 (9)
44.6% (9)Offense success %41.2% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but LV won. Projected margin was 4.5, the model overestimated by 8.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs LV
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 4.5. The market has GB at +1.0.
Las Vegas Raiders won, GB 13, LV 17. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Green Bay Packers at +1.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 5, the Green Bay Packers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.5, 1.5 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.056 against LV -0.037.
