Titans vs Colts – Week 5 2023
TEN
IND
TEN
AWAY
16@23
IND BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 16, Indianapolis Colts 23.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Titans, 3 Colts.
Model confidence: IND 60%Our line: IND -3.5
ODDS
SPREAD
IND +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -3.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.055Net EPA / play-0.019
-0.047 (18)Offense EPA / play-0.035 (16)
+0.007 (23)Defense EPA / play-0.017 (21)
39.7% (26)Offense success %40.8% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 3.5. Actual: 7. Off by 3.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Will Levis1808 yd · 8 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
DeAndre Hopkins
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@INDW6 2026 | TEN 26, IND 20 | IND | L |
| TEN@INDW8 2025 | TEN 14, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW3 2025 | IND 41, TEN 20 | IND | W |
| TEN@INDW16 2024 | TEN 30, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW6 2024 | IND 20, TEN 17 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project IND by 3.5. The market has IND at +2.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, TEN 16, IND 23. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at +2.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 5, the Tennessee Titans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.1, 0.6 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tennessee Titans, TEN 26, IND 20 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Indianapolis Colts: TEN -0.055 against IND -0.019.
