Bengals vs Cardinals – Week 5 2023
CIN
ARI
CIN
AWAY
34@20
CIN BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 34, Arizona Cardinals 20.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bengals, 2 Cardinals.
Model confidence: CIN 68%Our line: CIN -6.2
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -6.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.044Net EPA / play-0.157
-0.010 (12)Offense EPA / play-0.071 (22)
+0.034 (28)Defense EPA / play+0.085 (32)
44.0% (10)Offense success %40.5% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 6.2. Actual: 14. Off by 7.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@CINW17 2025 | ARI 14, CIN 37 | CIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs ARI
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 6.2. The market has CIN at -3.0.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CIN 34, ARI 20. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -3.0, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 5, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 0.7 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, ARI 14, CIN 37 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN -0.044 against ARI -0.157.
