2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CIN @ ARI – Week 5 2023
CIN
ARI
CIN
AWAY
34@20
CIN +14
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
ARI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: CIN
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: CIN 68%Projected margin: -4.0
CIN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-4.0
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 4.0. Actual: 14. Off by 10.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | CIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -170 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CIN
Joe Mixon
RB
267.0SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
262.7SEASON PPR
Joe Burrow
QB
147.2SEASON PPR
ARI
James Conner
RB
201.5SEASON PPR
Trey McBride
TE
181.5SEASON PPR
Kyler Murray
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@CINW17 2025 | ARI 14, CIN 37 | CIN | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES