CIN @ ARI – Week 5 2023
CIN
ARI
CIN
AWAY
34@20
CIN BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
Model confidence: CIN 68%Our line: CIN -6.2
CIN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.2
OUR LINE
-210
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.044Net EPA / play-0.157
-0.010Offense EPA / play-0.071
+0.034Defense EPA / play+0.085
44.0%Offense success %40.5%
46.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 6.2. Actual: 14. Off by 7.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -170 | +142 |
| Our fair price | -210 | +210 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CIN -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
68%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
60%
DIFFERENCE
+7%
Both figures are for CIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CIN
Joe Mixon
RB
267.0 SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
262.7 SEASON PPR
Joe Burrow
QB
147.2 SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
Joe Burrow2309 yd · 15 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
Joe Mixon1034 yd · 9 TD
Chase Brown179 yd · 0 TD
Jake Browning127 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Ja'Marr Chase100 rec · 1216 yd · 7 TD
Tyler Boyd67 rec · 667 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@CINW17 2025 | ARI 14, CIN 37 | CIN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs ARI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 6.2. The market has CIN at -3.0.
The model projects 46.2 combined points. The market total is 45.5.
Week 5 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, ARI 14, CIN 37 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN -0.044 against ARI -0.157.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
