Bears vs Commanders – Week 5 2023
CHI
WAS
CHI
AWAY
40@20
CHI BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 40, Washington Commanders 20.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 73% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Bears.
Model confidence: WAS 73%Our line: WAS -8.2
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -8.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.007Net EPA / play-0.190
-0.049 (19)Offense EPA / play-0.106 (27)
-0.042 (14)Defense EPA / play+0.085 (31)
41.8% (18)Offense success %41.0% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS A-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked WAS but CHI won. Projected margin was 8.2, the model overestimated by 28.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 26.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
No noteworthy trends
WAS
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 0-4 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
1 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@WASW6 2025 | CHI 25, WAS 24 | WAS | L |
| CHI@WASW8 2024 | CHI 15, WAS 18 | WAS | W |
| WAS@CHIW6 2022 | WAS 12, CHI 7 | CHI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs WAS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 73% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project WAS by 8.2. The market has WAS at -6.0.
Chicago Bears won, CHI 40, WAS 20. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 73% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Washington Commanders at -6.0, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 5, the Chicago Bears were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 0.0 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2023 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Chicago Bears, CHI 25, WAS 24 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Chicago Bears: CHI -0.007 against WAS -0.190.
