2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CHI @ WAS – Week 5 2023
CHI
WAS
CHI
AWAY
40@20
CHI +20
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
WAS
HOME
TIER A
PICK: WAS
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: WAS 73%Projected margin: 6.8
WAS
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
6.8
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS A-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked WAS but CHI won. Projected margin was 6.8 -- the model overestimated by 26.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 26.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | WAS market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -258 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CHI
No noteworthy trends
WAS
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 0-4 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
1 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CHI
DJ Moore
WR
286.5SEASON PPR
Justin Fields
QB
230.2SEASON PPR
Cole Kmet
TE
181.1SEASON PPR
WAS
Sam Howell
QB
257.5SEASON PPR
Terry McLaurin
WR
203.2SEASON PPR
Brian Robinson
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@WASW6 2025 | CHI 25, WAS 24 | WAS | L |
| CHI@WASW8 2024 | CHI 15, WAS 18 | WAS | W |
| WAS@CHIW6 2022 | WAS 12, CHI 7 | CHI | L |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES