2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ BUF – Week 5 2023
JAX
BUF
JAX
AWAY
25@20
JAX +5
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER A
PICK: BUF
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BUF 72%Projected margin: 6.9
BUF
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
6.9
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but JAX won. Projected margin was 6.9 -- the model overestimated by 11.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -250 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
BUF
Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
JAX
Travis Etienne
RB
282.4SEASON PPR
Trevor Lawrence
QB
262.5SEASON PPR
Evan Engram
TE
230.3SEASON PPR
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
392.6SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
273.8SEASON PPR
James Cook
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@BUFW3 2024 | JAX 10, BUF 47 | BUF | W |
| BUF@JAXW9 2021 | BUF 6, JAX 9 | BUF | L |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES