Jaguars vs Bills – Week 5 2023
JAX
BUF
JAX
AWAY
25@20
JAX BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 25, Buffalo Bills 20.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 72% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Jaguars, 2 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 72%Our line: BUF -7.8
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -7.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.034Net EPA / play+0.182
-0.070 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.108 (2)
-0.036 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.074 (8)
42.1% (15)Offense success %49.0% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but JAX won. Projected margin was 7.8, the model overestimated by 12.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
BUF
Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@BUFW3 2024 | JAX 10, BUF 47 | BUF | W |
| BUF@JAXW9 2021 | BUF 6, JAX 9 | BUF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project BUF by 7.8. The market has BUF at -5.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, JAX 25, BUF 20. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 72% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -5.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 5, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 2.1 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2023 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Buffalo Bills, JAX 10, BUF 47 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Buffalo Bills: JAX -0.034 against BUF +0.182.
