Saints vs Patriots – Week 5 2023
NO
NE
NO
AWAY
34@0
NO BY 34
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 34, New England Patriots 0.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Saints.
Model confidence: NE 59%Our line: NE -3.0
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -3.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.086Net EPA / play-0.136
-0.014 (13)Offense EPA / play-0.191 (31)
-0.100 (5)Defense EPA / play-0.055 (12)
42.1% (15)Offense success %38.9% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE C-tier pick misses. NO takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but NO won. Projected margin was 3.0, the model overestimated by 37.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 36.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Derek Carr3878 yd · 25 TD · 8 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@NOW6 2025 | NE 25, NO 19 | NO | L |
| NO@NEW3 2021 | NO 28, NE 13 | NO | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NE by 3.0. The market has NE at -2.5.
New Orleans Saints won, NO 34, NE 0. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New England Patriots at -2.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 5, the New Orleans Saints were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 7.1 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 25, NO 19 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.086 against NE -0.136.
