CAR @ DET – Week 5 2023
CAR
DET
CAR
AWAY
24@42
DET BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: DET 78%Our line: DET -10.3
DET
PICK SIDE
-9.5
MARKET SPREAD
-10.3
OUR LINE
-349
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.200Net EPA / play+0.093
-0.177Offense EPA / play+0.064
+0.023Defense EPA / play-0.029
37.6%Offense success %46.1%
43.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 10.3. Actual: 18. Off by 7.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CAR | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +350 | -455 |
| Our fair price | +349 | -349 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -9.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.26
OUR NUMBER
78%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
79%
DIFFERENCE
-1%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CAR
Adam Thielen
WR
231.0 SEASON PPR
Chuba Hubbard
RB
182.5 SEASON PPR
Bryce Young
QB
156.4 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
Bryce Young2877 yd · 11 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Chuba Hubbard902 yd · 5 TD
Miles Sanders432 yd · 1 TD
Bryce Young253 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Adam Thielen103 rec · 1014 yd · 4 TD
DJ Chark35 rec · 525 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CARW16 2022 | DET 23, CAR 37 | DET | L |
| DET@CARW11 2020 | DET 0, CAR 20 | DET | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 78% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DET by 10.3. The market has DET at -9.5.
The model projects 46.8 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 5 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Carolina Panthers, DET 23, CAR 37 in Week 16 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Detroit Lions: CAR -0.200 against DET +0.093.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
