Panthers vs Lions – Week 5 2023
CAR
DET
CAR
AWAY
24@42
DET BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 5
2023 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 24, Detroit Lions 42.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 78% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Panthers, 4 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 78%Our line: DET -10.3
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -9.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -10.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.200Net EPA / play+0.093
-0.177 (30)Offense EPA / play+0.064 (7)
+0.023 (27)Defense EPA / play-0.029 (17)
37.6% (31)Offense success %46.1% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 10.3. Actual: 18. Off by 7.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CARW4 2026 | DET 26, CAR 32 | DET | L |
| DET@CARW16 2022 | DET 23, CAR 37 | DET | L |
| DET@CARW11 2020 | DET 0, CAR 20 | DET | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 78% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DET by 10.3. The market has DET at -9.5.
Detroit Lions won, CAR 24, DET 42. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 78% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -9.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 9.5 points.
In Week 5, the Carolina Panthers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 3.3 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Carolina Panthers, DET 26, CAR 32 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Detroit Lions: CAR -0.200 against DET +0.093.
