DET @ CAR – Week 4 2026
DET
CAR
DET
AWAY
@
SUN 8:20 PM
WEEK 4 · 2026 SEASON
CAR
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: CAR 50%Projected margin: +0.2
CAR
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
+0.2
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.091Net EPA / play-0.107
+0.081Offense EPA / play-0.039
-0.010Defense EPA / play+0.067
45.2%Offense success %43.1%
41.7%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
CAR is our C-tier play in DET @ CAR (Week 4, 2026). The model assigns 50.0% confidence and projects DET by 0.2. Market spread sits at CAR +3.0.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | CAR market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
366.9SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
324.0SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
297.1SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
J.Goff4564 yd · 34 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
J.Gibbs1223 yd · 13 TD
D.Montgomery716 yd · 8 TD
J.Goff45 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
A.St. Brown117 rec · 1401 yd · 11 TD
J.Williams65 rec · 1117 yd · 7 TD
J.Gibbs77 rec · 616 yd · 5 TD
S.LaPorta40 rec · 489 yd · 3 TD
VS
4,564PASSyds3,011
1,984RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@DETW5 2023 | CAR 24, DET 42 | DET | W |
| DET@CARW16 2022 | DET 23, CAR 37 | DET | L |
| DET@CARW11 2020 | DET 0, CAR 20 | DET | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs CAR
Who is favored in Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers?
Our model takes Carolina Panthers at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DET by 0.2. The market has CAR at +3.0.
When do the Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers play?
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Who won the last Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers game?
Detroit Lions, 24-42 in Week 5 of 2023.
Which team has been better, the Detroit Lions or the Carolina Panthers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.091 against CAR -0.107.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
