Lions vs Panthers – Week 4 2026
DET
CAR
DET
AWAY
26@32
CAR BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 4
2026 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Lions, 2 Panthers.
Model confidence: DET 63%Our line: DET -4.4
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
Early season: 4 games played for at least one team. These numbers and ranks will move fast.
+0.029Net EPA / play+0.087
+0.180 (3)Offense EPA / play+0.115 (8)
+0.152 (31)Defense EPA / play+0.028 (21)
49.1% (4)Offense success %44.1%
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but CAR won. Projected margin was 4.4, the model overestimated by 10.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@DETW5 2023 | CAR 24, DET 42 | DET | W |
| DET@CARW16 2022 | DET 23, CAR 37 | DET | L |
| DET@CARW11 2020 | DET 0, CAR 20 | DET | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs CAR
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 4.4. The market has DET at -3.5.
Carolina Panthers won, DET 26, CAR 32. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Detroit Lions at -3.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 4, the Detroit Lions were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Carolina Panthers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.0, 2.5 below the market, which our board calls an under.
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Detroit Lions, CAR 24, DET 42 in Week 5 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Carolina Panthers: DET +0.029 against CAR +0.087.
